"Who's Winning?" - Goat Format Fundamentals
This article revisits a 2010 piece on evaluating gamestates in Yu-Gi-Oh!, updating it to reflect the Goat Format metagame and emphasizing that winning is determined by more than just life points.
Author's Note: My article titled "Who's Winning?" was originally posted to The Game Academy's article hub (now defunct) in 2010. It became one of the most praised pieces of my article writing career for the way that it illuminated the both the most basic fundamentals of the game as well as the factors that should be used to evaluate a gamestate. This article has been given some contextual updates from its original form to reflect the Goat Format metagame.
Who's Winning?
The question, "Who's winning?" is one of the most important questions in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh! Not just Yu-Gi-Oh! actually, but games in general. Just for the sake of clarity, saying, "Who's winning?" is actually a short way of saying, "Based on the current state of the game, which player has a higher probability of winning the game?" The longer version of the question certainly sounds a bit more complicated. The question itself makes a rather strong implication: The current state of the game correlates with winning the game. I first started playing Yu-Gi-Oh! back when Magic Ruler was the most recently released set. Virtually no theory had been developed at this point, so one could say that everyone was quite bad at the game. I occasionally attended local tournaments, and there would be spectators who would walk by and ask, "Who's winning?" Can you guess what the common responses were? "I'm winning by 1000 lifepoints." "I’m losing by 3000 lifepoints." "The game is tied at 4000 lifepoints." The Yu-Gi-Oh! rulebook clearly explains that lifepoints are used to keep score of a game. So whoever has higher lifepoints is more likely to win, right?
Who Need Scoreboards Anyway?
Your friends are off watching the a football game in another room. In your room, you're on the computer doing something much more entertaining (like playing some DuelingBook). You're still waiting on your opponent to take his turn, so you shout to the other room, "Hey, who's winning the game?" They tell you that the Packers have 17 and the Steelers have 14. Which team is more likely to win? Based on the information you were given, the Packers are more likely to win; they have a higher score. However, your friends failed to mention that the Steelers have possession of the ball, it’s 1st and goal, and they're on the three yard line. Given this new information, which team is more likely to win? There’s a strong chance that the Steelers score a touchdown and pull ahead. It’s easy to make the assertion that the Steelers are in fact winning despite currently holding a lower score. Although in most sports we assume that the team with the higher score is more likely to win, there's more to any sport than just a score. You have to consider other factors such as how close each team is to scoring additional points, which team was favored to win initially (the "matchup" as we call it in TCGs), and which players were injured during the game. When attempting to predict anything, whether it's the stock market, the result of an election, or what your mom is making for dinner tonight, more information results in a more accurate prediction.
