Risk in Goat Format
This article argues against conservative play in Goat Format, encouraging players to embrace risk and reward to improve their win probability, especially when behind.
When most players are dealt a poor hand, they resign themselves to losing, whether they are aware of it or not. Some players freeze up, hoping the opponent also has a bad hand. Some players continue to play as normal, going through the motions. Some players even admit defeat far before their lifepoints are reduced to zero. In this article, I will explain why I believe all of the above are the wrong approach.
At a glance, Goat Format seems to be defined by randomness. The format is full of powerful one-of cards that have a dramatic effect on how the game unfolds. This random nature is a fact we cannot avoid, but we can leverage it to our advantage, as randomness creates an opportunity for taking risks and gaining rewards. But to master this concept of risk/reward, we must consistently answer these two questions:
- How likely am I to win if I do not take a risk (i.e. what is my win probability)?
- Can I take any risks that will greatly increase my chances to win if I succeed?
Rules for Avoiding Risk in Goat Format
In my experience, most Goat Format players are too conservative, either because they are not very good at answering these questions, or they do not think about the game with this mindset. Another reason is that old articles and mid-level play theory teaches Goat Format players to avoid the powerful one-of cards, and to actively play around them until they are in the graveyard. There are also many general rules about good play in Goat Format that you might have heard before. For example:
- Do not attack with 2 or more monsters (Mirror Force).
- Do not summon 2 or more monsters (Torrential Tribute).
- Do not set 2 or more spells and traps (Heavy Storm).
- Do not use traps on floating monsters (Sangan, a flipped Dekoichi, the Battlechanted Locomotive, etc.).
- Do not set a unchainable spell or trap on the first turn (Breaker the Magical Warrior).
- Do not use Heavy Storm too early in the game.
- Do not summon Airknight Parshath too early in the game (Snatch Steal).
- Do not summon Black Luster Soldier - Envoy of the Beginning too early in the game (Snatch Steal, Nobleman of Crossout, opposing chaos monsters).
- Lifepoints are an important resource; save as many as you can.
All of these principles are actually risk-averse, and generally these are great things to do when you are winning. After all, it is good to be conservative when you are ahead. Unless you make a huge mistake that gives your opponent unexpected card advantage, or an opportunity to kill you, it is not likely you will lose. However, if you play with this mentality while you are losing, you will almost certainly not improve your win probability and you will continue to be losing the game.
